Widespread Rainfall Forecast Across Nepal Today
5th October 2025, Kathmandu
The latest forecast from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) confirms that widespread rainfall is expected across Nepal today, a situation primarily driven by the active influence of moisture-laden monsoon winds pushing inland from the Bay of Bengal.
Widespread Rainfall Forecast
This late-season surge of the monsoon is causing diverse weather patterns across the country, with significant risk of extreme weather events in the eastern and southern regions.
The pervasive moisture is resulting in extensive cloud cover and precipitation throughout most provinces, necessitating heightened public vigilance. The DHM’s Weather Forecasting Division has meticulously outlined the expected conditions for various parts of the country, emphasizing the highest risk areas.
Detailed Provincial Weather Breakdown
The weather patterns are not uniform across Nepal, presenting a complex picture of regional variations:
Koshi and Madhes Provinces: The Epicenter of Risk
These eastern and southeastern provinces are forecasted to face the most intense weather conditions. Skies in both Koshi and Madhes Provinces are expected to remain mostly overcast, maintaining a persistent threat of precipitation. Moderate rainfall, accompanied by thunder and lightning, is widely anticipated in several areas. Crucially, the forecast includes a significant chance of heavy rainfall at one or two locations within these provinces, particularly in the hilly region of Koshi Province. This intense downpour increases the imminent risk of flash floods and landslides, especially in communities residing near riverbanks or on unstable slopes. Reports from the DHM indicate that water levels in several major rivers, including the Bagmati, Sunkoshi, Arun, Tamor, Koshi, Budhikhola, and Biring Khola, have already surged past the alert and even danger levels, a situation that is expected to persist until at least this evening.
Bagmati and Lumbini Provinces: Generally Cloudy with Scattered Showers
Moving west, the intensity of the rain is projected to be slightly less severe but remains a concern. Bagmati and Lumbini Provinces are expected to experience a generally cloudy day. Scattered showers are possible in some areas, specifically the hilly and lowland regions of these provinces. While widespread heavy rainfall is less likely than in the east, the presence of moderate rain accompanied by thunder and lightning is a distinct possibility in the hilly areas of Bagmati. Given the recent history of road blockages and land instability in this region, notably along the routes connecting to the Kathmandu Valley, even moderate rainfall could exacerbate existing infrastructural damage.
Other Provinces: Partial Cloudiness with Occasional Rain
The remaining provinces of Nepal are generally predicted to have a relatively milder day. The skies will be partly cloudy, with occasional, brief rain showers occurring in a few localized areas. Travelers and residents in these regions are still advised to monitor local conditions but face a lower immediate risk compared to the eastern provinces.
Persistent Cloud Cover and Atmospheric Influence
The Department has highlighted that the cloud cover will be a dominant feature of the day. A significant portion of the country, specifically most areas in Koshi, Madhes, and Bagmati Provinces, along with the entire hilly region of Nepal, will remain generally cloudy throughout the day. This atmospheric condition is a direct result of the continuous inflow of moisture associated with the late-active monsoon trough, which is moving from the Bay of Bengal through the Indian plains and into Nepal. The combination of this abundant moisture and local instability in the atmosphere is what fuels the predicted thundershowers and lightning activity.
Critical Advisory for Public Safety and Precautionary Measures
Meteorologists have issued a firm and clear advisory, urging the public to exercise special caution. Residents, particularly those in the highly vulnerable eastern and southeastern regions (Koshi and Madhes), must remain on high alert for significant disruptions. The primary risks stemming from the forecast include:
Waterlogging and Inundation: Low-lying and urban areas, particularly in the Tarai region, face the threat of waterlogging due to continuous rainfall overwhelming drainage systems.
Landslides and Mudslides: Hilly and mountainous regions are prone to landslides and mudslides, especially along major highways and local roads, which can sever connectivity and strand travelers.
Transportation Delays and Closures: Both road and air transport are highly susceptible to disruption. Travelers are strongly encouraged to monitor weather and road updates from official government sources before attempting any journey, especially for long-distance travel, to avoid being stranded by highway closures.
Riverine Flooding: Communities living along the banks of major rivers and their tributaries are at a high risk of localized flash floods. The government has directed local disaster management committees to remain fully engaged, urging immediate relocation of vulnerable populations to safer, elevated ground where necessary.
The continuation of this weather pattern, even late in the monsoon season, underscores the need for ongoing disaster preparedness across Nepal.
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