World Bank 2025 Commodity Price Forecast: Food, Oil, Metal Decline 10% Amid Economic Slowdown
15th June 2025, Kathmandu
The World Bank has projected that food commodity prices could fall by up to 10% in 2025. The forecast comes amid slowing global economic growth and rising trade uncertainties. The findings were published in the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report.
World Bank Commodity Price Forecast
Economic Slowdown Behind Price Fall
The report highlights that weak global growth is putting downward pressure on commodity prices. It warns that trade barriers and policy uncertainties are dampening demand. As a result, the annual average prices of many goods are likely to fall.
According to the report, prices could drop by 10% in 2025. In 2026, a further 6% decrease is expected.
Improved Supply Conditions
Better supply conditions are another reason for the forecasted price decline. The World Bank believes energy and metal production will expand in the coming months. Likewise, supply chain disruptions in agriculture are expected to ease.
With increased production and stable supply, prices are likely to soften across several sectors.
Risks Moving Downward
The risk outlook for commodity prices is also tilting downward. Major economies are experiencing renewed trade tensions. If these tensions persist, global trade and investment could slow further. That would lead to reduced demand and, in turn, lower prices.
The report stresses that commodity demand is closely linked to economic activity. A slowdown in trade may hurt both producers and exporters.
Oil Price Declines Due To Supply Surge
A sharp drop in oil prices earlier this year also supports the World Bank’s forecast. The fall occurred in early April when oil-exporting countries significantly increased production.
Currently, crude oil is expected to average $466 per barrel in 2025. By 2026, the average could dip slightly to $461 per barrel. This shift in oil prices will also influence the cost of agricultural goods and biofuels.
Corn And Ethanol Demand To Fall
One key example is corn. Corn is widely used to produce ethanol, a type of fuel. As ethanol demand weakens, corn prices are projected to drop. This is one reason why the overall food price index is expected to decline.
In addition, the report mentions that beverage prices will begin to stabilize around 2026–27. Until then, consumers may see price changes across food and drink items.
Rice And Soybean Surplus
Rising rice inventories and high soybean production are two more factors behind the expected price fall. The World Bank notes that global rice stockpiles have increased. At the same time, soybean yields remain strong.
With more supply and steady production, prices of key food grains like rice are likely to go down. This trend could offer some relief to low- and middle-income countries.
Agricultural Prices To Remain Stable
The report expects agricultural prices to stay broadly stable in the near term. While prices may fall slightly, extreme fluctuations are unlikely. Most food-related commodities will show minor changes in price, keeping consumer markets relatively calm.
However, risks remain. Sudden supply shocks or climate events could alter current projections.
Metal Prices Also Expected To Decline
Besides food and fuel, metal prices are also likely to decrease. The report estimates that all metals, except precious ones, will drop by around 5% in 2025. After that, prices are expected to stabilize in 2026.
Base metals like copper and aluminum are facing low demand due to trade-related slowdowns. This reflects weaker manufacturing and reduced industrial activity worldwide.
Conclusion
In summary, the World Bank forecasts a 10% fall in global commodity prices in 2025. The trend is driven by weak demand, rising trade barriers, and improved supply conditions. Food, fuel, and metals are all expected to become cheaper.
Although the price drop may benefit consumers, the global economy remains uncertain. The coming years will depend on how countries handle trade policies, supply chains, and climate-related risks.
For more: World Bank Commodity Price Forecast
