10 June 2024, Kathmandu
Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal: Analysis Based on Ten-Month Data of 2023/24 (#Highlights)
Nepal’s Macroeconomic Situation 2023–24
Inflation Trends
Nepal has witnessed a moderation in consumer price inflation, which stood at 4.40% year-on-year (y-o-y) as of mid-May 2024, compared to 7.41% in the same period the previous year. The food and beverage category saw a y-o-y inflation rate of 6.27%, while the non-food and services category was at 2.96% .
Regional Inflation
The y-o-y consumer price inflation varied across regions: Kathmandu Valley (4.30%), Terai (4.32%), Hill (4.70%), and Mountain (4.22%). These figures represent a significant decrease from the previous year’s rates, which ranged from 7.12% to 7.68% across these regions .
Wholesale Price Inflation
The wholesale price inflation increased to 5.68% year over year by mid-May 2024, compared to 3.31% a year earlier. The prices of consumption goods, intermediate goods, and capital goods saw increases, while construction material prices decreased by 5.55% .
External Sector Performance
Exports: Merchandise exports decreased by 3.6%, amounting to NPR 126.17 billion. Notably, exports to China rose by 68.1%, while exports to India and other countries fell .
Imports:
Merchandise imports fell by 2.4% to NPR 1303.36 billion. Imports from China increased by 34.4%, while those from India and other countries decreased .
Remittances and Foreign Exchange
Remittances increased by 19.2% in NPR terms and 17.1% in USD terms. The balance of payments remained in surplus, at NPR 392.64 billion. Gross foreign exchange reserves stood at NPR 1942.40 billion (USD 14.54 billion), sufficient to cover prospective merchandise imports for 15.1 months and merchandise and services imports for 12.6 months .
Fiscal Situation
Government Expenditure:
Total expenditure was NPR 1056.89 billion, with recurrent, capital, and financial expenditures amounting to NPR 752.56 billion, NPR 111.88 billion, and NPR 192.45 billion, respectively .
Revenue Mobilization:
Total revenue collection reached NPR 831.93 billion, marking a 10% increase. Tax revenue amounted to NPR 746.83 billion, while non-tax revenue was NPR 85.10 billion .
Cash Balance:
The government’s cash balance in various accounts maintained with NRB was NPR 279.74 billion in mid-May 2024 .
Monetary Situation
Money Supply:
Broad money (M2) increased by 8.1% in the review period, with a year-over-y expansion of 12.4% .
Domestic Credit:
Domestic credit grew by 2.8% during the review period, and on a year-over-y basis, it increased by 5.9% .
This detailed report provides a comprehensive overview of Nepal’s macroeconomic and financial situation based on ten months of data from the fiscal year 2023–24.
The moderation in inflation, changes in the external sector, and the fiscal and monetary situations highlight significant trends and challenges facing Nepal’s economy.
Current-macroeconomic-situation-Tables-Based-on-Ten-Months-data-of-2023-24
Based on ten months of data from the fiscal year 2023/24, Nepal’s macroeconomic and financial situation shows a moderation in consumer price inflation to 4.40% year-on-year (y-o-y) as of mid-May 2024, down from 7.41% the previous year. Regional inflation rates have also decreased, with Kathmandu Valley at 4.30%, Terai at 4.32%, Hill at 4.70%, and Mountain at 4.22%.
Wholesale price inflation rose to 5.68% year over year. External sector performance saw a 3.6% decrease in merchandise exports and a 2.4% fall in imports, with notable increases in trade with China.
Remittances grew by 19.2% in NPR terms, maintaining a balance of payments surplus of NPR 392.64 billion and foreign exchange reserves of NPR 1942.40 billion. Government expenditure reached NPR 1056.89 billion, with a revenue collection of NPR 831.93 billion.
The broad money supply expanded by 8.1%, while domestic credit grew by 2.8% during the review period.
Download the file: Current-macroeconomic-situation-Tables-Based-on-Ten-Months-data-of-2080.81
