Trump 104% Tariffs: US-China Trade War Sparks Global Recession Risk
9th April 2025, Kathmandu
In a bold move, U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs up to 104% on imports from China, deepening the ongoing trade war. Despite warnings from allies and economic uncertainty, Trump insists this will benefit U.S. industries by boosting production and restoring fair trade.
Trump 104% Tariffs
Trump’s latest tariff hike, which includes up to 104% tariffs on Chinese goods, has raised concerns globally. This increase comes as a response to China’s retaliation, where it imposed 34% tariffs on U.S. products. The tariffs, which vary from 11% to 50%, are calculated based on the U.S. trade deficit with these nations. The countries affected include the European Union (20%), Japan (24%), Vietnam (46%), and South Korea (25%), among others.
Previously, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on most imports, excluding Mexico and Canada. The new tariffs add 10% on top of existing rates, escalating trade tensions even further. Trump’s justification is that these measures are necessary to protect U.S. businesses and workers from unfair foreign trade practices.
Impact on U.S. Consumers and Global Markets
These tariffs will directly impact U.S. consumers, who will face higher prices for goods from affected countries. As importers pass the increased costs to retailers, it will eventually fall on consumers. Additionally, the new measures might cause disruptions in global supply chains, as manufacturers in affected countries may adjust their production strategies in response to these tariffs.
Trump has warned that these tariffs are only the beginning and vowed to continue his aggressive trade policies. “For the last 50 years, our country and taxpayers have been exploited. This will not happen again,” Trump stated. Despite the negative consequences, he insists that this is a crucial step toward improving trade conditions for the U.S.
Global Recession Risks and Economic Uncertainty
These tariffs could exacerbate the risk of a global recession. Following the tariff announcement, JPMorgan Chase raised the likelihood of a global recession from 40% to 60% by the end of the year. The bank warned that these tariff increases would hurt both consumer spending and business investment. Furthermore, it could result in disrupted global supply chains and a decline in economic confidence.
Tax Foundation estimates that the average American consumer will pay an additional $2,100 annually due to these tariffs. This is a significant burden, especially when combined with the uncertainty surrounding the impact on job markets and overall economic stability.
Goldman Sachs also predicts a 45% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months due to Trump’s aggressive tariff policies. Economists are concerned that these measures will hurt domestic businesses and ultimately lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers. However, some experts like Morgan Stanley believe that a deal may be reached, potentially reducing tariffs and avoiding a recession.
China’s Response and Broader Trade Effects
The tariffs have severely impacted China, with its products facing increased costs in the U.S. China has already retaliated with its tariffs on U.S. goods, and officials have warned of further measures. Despite this, China remains one of the largest suppliers of goods to the U.S., with over $439 billion worth of imports in 2024.
The ongoing trade war between the two countries could result in significant job losses and industry shutdowns, especially in sectors relying heavily on imported goods. However, some economists believe that even if tariffs are eventually reduced, the long-term impact on the U.S. economy could be irreversible.
Looking Ahead
As the trade war intensifies, global markets will continue to react to Trump’s tariffs. China remains determined to challenge U.S. policies, while countries affected by the tariffs are exploring ways to adjust. It remains unclear whether these measures will ultimately benefit the U.S. economy or lead to greater instability in the global market. For now, the world watches closely as the U.S. navigates this high-stakes trade conflict.
